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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">mgimolaw</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Московский журнал международного права</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Moscow Journal of International Law</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0869-0049</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2619-0893</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Moscow State Institute of International Relations</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24833/0869-0049-2023-3-29-40</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">mgimolaw-2751</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ПРАВО И ПОЛИТИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>LAW AND POLITICS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Роль случайного в становлении международного права</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Role of Contingency in Formation of International Law</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0593-3101</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Магомедова</surname><given-names>О. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Magomedova</surname><given-names>О. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Ольга Сергеевна Магомедова, кандидат юридических наук, аналитик Центра ответственного ведения бизнеса</p><p>119285, Москва, Воробьевское шоссе, д. 6А</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Olga S. Magomedova, Candidate of Juridical Sciences, Researcher of the Center of Responsible Business Conduct</p><p>6a, Vorobiyovskoye  shosse,  Moscow, 119285</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">olga.magomedova.96@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Всероссийская академия внешней торговли Министерства экономического развития Российской Федерации</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Russian Foreign Trade Academy of the Ministry for the Economic Development of the Russian Federation</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>29</day><month>10</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>29</fpage><lpage>40</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Магомедова О.С., 2023</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Магомедова О.С.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Magomedova О.S.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.mjil.ru/jour/article/view/2751">https://www.mjil.ru/jour/article/view/2751</self-uri><abstract><sec><title>ВВЕДЕНИЕ</title><p>ВВЕДЕНИЕ. Группа зарубежных ученых-международников недавно опубликовала коллективную монографию по тематике вероятности в международном праве – «Contingency in International Law: on the possibility of different legal histories». [Contingency in International Law…2021]. Исходным пунктом данной работы является вопрос, почему международное право такое, каким мы его знаем сейчас, и могло ли оно быть другим. Обращение к проблеме возможностей альтернативных путей развития истории международного права ставит под вопрос неизбежность развития международного права в современное состояние и требует исследования взаимосвязи между значением самого международного права, историческим контекстом и волей субъектов, участвующих в становлении международного права.</p></sec><sec><title>МАТЕРИАЛЫ И МЕТОДЫ</title><p>МАТЕРИАЛЫ И МЕТОДЫ. Материалом исследования послужила коллективная моногра</p><p>фия «Contingency in International Law: on the possibility of different legal histories» («Вероятность в международном праве: о возможности иных историй права») под редакцией И. Венцке и К. Дж. Хеллера. Исследование идей, изложенных авторами монографии, проведено с использованием общенаучных методов и частных юридических методов, как историко-правовой подход.</p></sec><sec><title>РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ</title><p>РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ. Для развития отечественных международно-правовых исследований в области теории международного права иногда нужен интеллектуальный импульс, смелая постановка вопросов, идущих вразрез с доминирующими теоретическими установками. В этом отношении вопрос о возможности совершенно отличных путей развития содержания международного права ввиду самых различных факторов может быть триггером для обновления позитивистских установок в российской теории международного права.  Задача пересмотра направляющий тезисов не требует отказа от сложившихся правовых позиций, но, напротив, необходимость плодотворного осмысления традиционных убеждений. Данное предположение иллюстрируется концепцией международно-правовой политики государства, которая исходит из положений классической теории согласования воль, и вместе с тем делает ряд допущений или пояснений, позволяющих отвечать на вопросы о вероятности становления международно-правовых норм тем или иным образом. На основе материалов книги под редакцией И. Венцке и К. Дж. Хеллер исследуются вопросы   о    роли    случайного    и    закономерного в определении содержания международного права, о значении контекста в создании и развитии норм международного права, о месте волевых решений и роли случайных и внеправовых факторов в положениях концепции международно-правовой политики.</p></sec><sec><title>ОБСУЖДЕНИЕ И ВЫВОДЫ</title><p>ОБСУЖДЕНИЕ И ВЫВОДЫ. В отличие от теории согласования воль, стоящей на строгих позитивистских основаниях, концепция международно-правовой политики государства подтверждает влияние внеправовых факторов на ход развития международно-правовой аргументации государств. Например, проблема контекста имеет большое значение в определении возможности легитимации тех или иных международно-правовых позиций государства. Сами по себе доводы государств со ссылками на нормы международного права остаются бесплодными вне актуального контекста (включая настоящее содержание международного права, состояние международных отношений, темы в международной повестке). Это связано с тем, что легитимируемые правовые нормы фиксируют текущие результаты согласования воль среди государств, достижимость которых зависит от комплекса правовых и внеправовых факторов. Но также важно понимать пределы допущений о влиянии тех или иных факторов на содержание международного права. Так, с одной стороны, не следует преувеличивать роль контекста, поскольку международное право не может поддаваться конъюнктуре, а развивается последовательно. В то же время при исследовании международно-правовых политик государств следует избегать склонности к ложному детерминизму в оценке их развития ввиду риска ошибочного выделения стратегической линии международно-правовой аргументации государства при пренебрежении фактами, не соответствующие данной линии. Таким образом, вопросы, предлагающие неожиданные ракурсы на казалось бы решенные задачи, позволяют развивать устойчивые доктринальные представления в новом русле. Но вместе с тем необходимо учитывать методологические пределы новых допущений для последовательного развития современной отечественной науки международного права.</p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><sec><title>INTRODUCTION</title><p>INTRODUCTION. A group of foreign international scholars has recently published a collective monograph – “Contingency in International Law: on the possibility of different legal histories” [Contingency in International Law…2021]. The starting point of this work is the question why international law is as we know it today, and whether it could be different. The problem of possible alternative ways for development of international law calls challenges the necessity of the current state of international law and urges to research the interrelation among the power of international law itself, historical context and wills of subjects involved in international law-creating.</p></sec><sec><title>MATERIAL AND METHODS</title><p>MATERIAL AND METHODS. The research material for the present article is the collective monograph “Contingency in International Law: on the possibility of different legal histories” edited by I. Venzke and K.J. Heller. The study of the presented ideas is based on general scientific methods and private legal methods, as the historical and legal approach.</p></sec><sec><title>RESEARCH RESULTS</title><p>RESEARCH RESULTS. The development of a national international legal scholarship of the theory of international law sometimes needs an intellectual impulse, a bold statement of questions that challenge the dominant theoretical principles. In this regard, the question on the possibility of different ways of developing international law due to a variety of factors, could be a trigger for rethinking positivist attitudes in the Russian theory of international law. The intention in revising the classical theses does not imply rejection of established legal positions, but, on the contrary, it necessitates fruitful reflections on traditional tenets. This assumption is illustrated with the concept of the international legal policy of the state, which originates from the classical theory of coordination of wills, and at the same time makes a number of assumptions or explanations which could answer questions about contingencies in formation of international legal norms. Relying on the materials of the book edited by I. Venzke and K.J. Heller the article provides outlook on questions about chance and regularities in determining the content of international law, about role of context in the creation and development of international law, about the sovereign wills and role of contingencies and extra-legal factors in the concept of international legal policy.</p><p>DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS. In contrast to the theory of coordination of wills, which is based on strict positivist grounds, the concept of the international legal policy of State assumes influence of extra-legal factors for arrangement of international legal argumentation of States. For example, the problem of context is of great importance in determining the possibility of legitimizing certain international legal positions of State. The arguments of States as such with references to norms of international law remain fruitless outside certain context (including present content of international law, current state of international relations, topics on the international agenda). This is because legitimated legal norms fix the current results of coordination of wills among States, which depend on interaction of legal and nonlegal factors. But it is also important to understand limits of assumptions about impact of certain factors on the content of international law. So, on the one hand, the role of context should not be overestimated, since international law does not succumb to conjuncture, but develops consistently. At the same time, by studying international legal policies of States, one should avoid false determinism. It poses the risk to trace a wrong strategic line of State's legal arguments with over-shadowing ‘irrelevant’ facts. Thus, questions that open perspectives on seemingly solved problems make it possible to develop established doctrinal ideas in a new direction. However, it is necessary to take into account methodological limits of new assumptions for consistent development of contemporary national discipline of international law.</p></sec><sec><title> </title><p> </p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>суверенная воля</kwd><kwd>альтернативная история</kwd><kwd>согласование воль</kwd><kwd>международно-правовая политика</kwd><kwd>легитимация</kwd><kwd>международно-правовые доводы</kwd><kwd>контекст</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>sovereign will</kwd><kwd>counterfactuals</kwd><kwd>coordination of wills</kwd><kwd>international legal policy</kwd><kwd>legitimation</kwd><kwd>international legal arguments</kwd><kwd>context</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Al Attar M. 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